![]() ![]() Although there was a 2012 primary, stringent ballot access restrictions led to only Mitt Romney and Ron Paul qualifying, making it a less useful marker. Let’s start with a look back at the 2008 GOP presidential primary, shown in Map 1. Lastly, John Kasich will hope to also win over support among voters in the Urban Crescent, but his route to victory is hard to see. Cruz will hope that he can improve his support among evangelicals and gain an edge in a still-fragmented field, though his South Carolina performance leaves us skeptical that he can manage that feat. Helping the Florida senator will be the heavier concentration of highly educated voters in those areas. Still, Rubio has the most obvious path to best Trump: outdistancing the billionaire in the populous Urban Crescent, the curving array of metropolitan areas formed by the Northern Virginia suburbs outside of Washington, D.C., the greater Richmond region, and Hampton Roads in the state’s southeast. Trump’s strengths in Virginia will likely reflect those he has exhibited so far, with stronger support from voters with lower education levels and many white evangelical Christian voters, although his support is far from limited to just those groups. So heading into March 1, Trump keeps winning, Rubio has back-to-back runner-up showings buoying him as he anxiously waits for the field to further winnow, and Cruz is losing steam after consecutive third-place finishes. Since that survey was completed, Trump has won the South Carolina primary and the Nevada caucus. There hasn’t been much recent polling in the commonwealth, but in mid-February the Wason Center at Christopher Newport University found Trump ahead of Rubio by six points, 28 percent to 22 percent, with Ted Cruz in third at 19 percent. Still, if anyone is going to beat Trump in Virginia, it might be Rubio, if he finally gets his act together and the party does, too.Īlthough the business mogul may be slightly ahead in Virginia, it’s unclear how big a lead Trump might or might not have in the Old Dominion. Given Trump’s performance so far, it will be a surprise if he doesn’t capture Virginia by some margin. The state of play in the GOP race is pretty clear from a national perspective: Trump is at least a modest favorite almost everywhere. The Republicansĭelegates at stake: 49 statewide delegates (13 at-large, three automatic, and 33 congressional district delegates)Īllocation method: Proportional allocation by statewide vote (roughly 1 percent threshold) for all delegates So what can we expect in both parties’ elections? Read on for a preview. Many aspects of the state’s electorate are sufficiently favorable to Marco Rubio that he has at least an opportunity to defeat Donald Trump if things fall his way. Yet, at least on the Republican side, the commonwealth may hold a great deal of meaning. However, some might not attach as much overall importance to Virginia’s presidential primary. The Old Dominion’s 20 presidential vote most closely matched the national popular vote, and it has become a pivotal swing state in a polarized country that doesn’t have many of them. In November 2016, Virginia will easily be one of the most-watched states in the general election contest. Most states have laws “binding” the delegates, but legal scholars have debated whether the electors could still go rogue and vote their conscience.Editor’s Note: This article has been adapted from “ Sabato’s Crystal Ball,” a comprehensive website run by the University of Virginia’s Center for Politics that features regular, detailed analysis of elections around the country. And a lurking mystery is whether electors really have to do what voters in the state said, anyway. Almost all states assign their electoral votes as winner-take-all, but Maine and Nebraska award electors by congressional districts. ![]() The system is further complicated because a voter in a small state gets more say in picking electors than a voter in a big state. So they created “indirect” elections, where voters get to pick some people, and then those people get to vote for president. That's because the white guys who wrote the rules (the Constitution and amendments) did not trust regular people and wanted to give slave-holding states more votes without letting blacks vote. There are only 538 of them for a country of almost 325 million people. 19 to pick the president of the United States. You’ve probably never met a presidential elector – the people who voted Dec. ![]()
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